How a Bookmaker Comes Up With Money Making Odds
How a Bookmaker Comes Up With Money Making Odds
Anyone who has decided to start betting professionally needs to have at least a basic understanding of how a bookmaker operates and makes money.
At the end of the day, a bookie is someone we will be standing against when we decide to make our living from sports betting.
Behind the bookmaker odds, there is usually either a team of sports analysts and mathematicians or an odds supplying platform. The platform, being a separate business, has a team of betting experts.
Either way, anytime one of us places our bet, the odds have been developed by a person, a human being. And the more popular the sport, the market or the match is, the smarter the analyst.
Let’s take the UEFA Champions League final in 2019, Liverpool vs Tottenham, for example. One of the major English bookmakers had almost 70% of bets placed on this specific match. It does take a lot of knowledge and experience, to understand that the bookie used most of its best manpower to come up with odds for this game. The revenue from this fixture is so big, that the losses from other events on the same day will be tolerable or insignificant.
On the same day, in Swedish Allsvenskan IFK Goteborg played a home match against Orebro. Goteborg was a favorite and was higher in the league table than Orebro, 21 points against 14. But looking at each team’s previous 5 matches, Goteborg failed to win at home, where Orebro won all their away matches – a fact we, being punters, cannot ignore. And what do you think were the 1×2 odds for the match? 1.51, 4,62, 7. Odds 7 for the away win! In addition to being extremely overpriced, Orebro won the game 0 – 1!
What we can learn from this case, is that a bookmaker needs to prioritize its manpower and often neglects less popular markets. This is one of the most common places to look for value bets for punters.
Another reason for a value bet to appear is the human factor. One of Sporita founders worked as a football expert for a major bookmaker for 8 years. Doing the same job for such a long time can become a routine and lead to an error. Especially, when family or a health issue troubles a person. There is a common problem in the workplace when an employee is not doing his best because his mind is elsewhere.
How a Bookmaker Comes Up With Money Making Odds
Finally, coming up with odds for a difficult match can be a challenging task. And an expert from the other side of the “wall” can be more talented, than the one that works for the bookmaker.
To conclude, there is a plethora of opportunities to beat the bookie in sports betting, because of the reasons above. And with sufficient knowledge in math and sports along with an understanding of how a bookmaker operates – the sky’s the limit!
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